Hurricane Irma: thoughts ahead of a possible Florida landfall

Irma is breaking records all over the place and leaving near-total damage in its wake: but I will leave that for others to discuss. As Irma heads towards the US Coastline, I wanted to post a short note on the uncertainty that seems to have dragged on in last 2-3 days around just what might be in store plus another couple of aspects of the storm that give maybe some context to the bigger picture of hurricane activity. Uncertainties in Irma's future position The animation below shows pretty well the problem we have. It shows the wind just above the surface and the central pressure field of Irma for Monday midnight from models run Thursday midnight. The models remain in disagreement around just