September 29, 2019

A couple of years ago I wrote a blog post wondering how easy it might be to propel a hurricane into Europe, based on extremes of sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone forward speeds. Not long after this, Hurricane Ophelia came within 12 hours of landfall from Ireland as a tropical system.

Two years on, there is the potential of another system - Lorenzo - anomalous in its intensity and location for this time...

October 12, 2017

Thirty years ago, a large mass of cloud moved north-east towards the shores of NW France and SE England: the infamous, poorly-forecast, October Storm. Thirty years on, Hurricane Ophelia sits close to the Azores ready to move north-east possibly towards the NW Europe. Two very different storms, but both are connected by the low risk but considerable potential that exists in the overlapping of the tropical and...

September 7, 2017

Irma is breaking records all over the place and leaving near-total damage in its wake: but I will leave that for others to discuss. As Irma heads towards the US Coastline, I wanted to post a short note on the uncertainty that seems to have dragged on in last 2-3 days around just what might be in store plus another couple of aspects of the storm that give maybe some context to the bigger picture of hurricane activi...

November 1, 2016

Given the number of years since a major hurricane landfall, naturally Hurricane Matthew drew a lot of attention. I'll leave the meteorological autopsy of the event to the many excellent summaries from catastrophe modelling companies, brokers and re/insurers that have appeared and offer up five observations that struck me during and after the event. 

Loss data for cat model improvements: "same old sam...

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