March 1, 2017

Much of how we underwrite and model nowadays is done under the watchful eye (some I'm sure might say handcuffs) of the regulator. Whether you like it or not, there is obvious prudence inherent in the guidelines to ensure companies are capitalised to withstand that 1-in-200 year event or year when it does arrive. But how much do we know about the sort of events that make up the tail?

US Hurricane, eh? Boooring!...

February 8, 2017

If you want the executive summary, the title gives it away: combining hazard and vulnerability from two different sources doesn't necessarily create you a new model, much as it would be wonderfully efficient for us all to help create new views of risk.

However, this article is intended to highlight the caveats around combining different views of hazard and vulnerability. This is with an eye on an exciting, impendin...

November 21, 2016

This may seem like a confession only ever heard at a gathering of Meteorologists Anonymous, but I have a favourite windstorm. It's possible you've never heard of "The Greenhouse Low", but in terms of its severity, it's one from which we can learn things, especially with regards the type of event we might see when The Big One finally happens in Europe.

Over the course of two days in early Februar...

October 21, 2016

Hurricane modelling following the active years of 2004 and 2005 was enlivened by the recognition of - and arguments around - the decadal see-sawing of the sea-surface temperatures in Atlantic Basin and its possible influence on hurricane frequency. However I'm not here to discuss this rather thorny issue given recent reductions in landfall activity, but rather use it as an e...

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