I work outside my core model evaluation area in research to better help us understand catastrophe risk. I was delighted to have been given a part-time Visiting Research Fellow position at the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading as of May 2017.
Current Research Area: Re-purposing Climate Model Output
Essentially demonstrating the utility of academic data in the risk modelling arena. I have been working since January 2018 with the Institute of Environment Analytics at the University of Reading to convert high resolution climate model data into losses/wind footprints to answer a few questions:
- Can we better understand footprints in the tail of the curve and does model resolution impact these?
- Has there been a shift over time of the underlying European Windstorm risk in Europe?
- Do current "short-term" views of risk of European Windstorm make sense?
- When we compare models to history, how reliable or variable is that history with which we validate our models?
Some of the work has thrown up some conundrums around how we model not just windstorm risk, but any risk that relies on history as a guide. What do we mean by "history" and how representative of history is "our" history that we we use to validate models?
Other topics of interest
Developing "alternative universes" of present-day global climate to attempt to validate/inform existing unknowns around meteorological catastrophe risk
The re-purposing of Global Circulation Model data for understanding of risk both
in very specific peril/regions where extra data could benefit our understanding in small steps
in developing countries where historical records are poor that could promote the building of simple risk models
Understanding differences in meteorological and insurance-specific "stormy" winters and their synoptic drivers
Developing simple toolkits and data layers to enable academia to better provide insurance-specific output as part of hazard simulations and studies
Driving the insurance industry to identify very specific topics in specific hazards that increase our understanding of the peril and how we model it
Please feel free to take a look at my ResearchGate pages for past and ongoing research work.