Below you will find presentations that I've give that I hope you find of interest. Typically the length of the presentations - when given - are normally no longer than 20 minutes long but are here as a longer read than some of the blog posts. Don't forget to contact me if you have any queries about the work. 

Efficacy of Hindcasts at Forecasting Insurance Losses - ECMWF UEF2020 Conference, 3rd June 2020

I was lucky enough to have my abstract accepted to talk at the ECMWF "Using ECMWF's Forecasts" presentation. This talk has been an ongoing piece of research to ascertain the lead time with which we can provide useful loss guidance.

I have converted the 1993-2016 winter ensemble forecasts (25 per winter) into a simple loss value, which I've compared against the ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis, which I use as the ground truth. 

The results aren't particularly promising as yet, but this is a still very much a work-in-progress.

Historical Data and Climate Change - EGU, 7th May 2020

This was an invited presentation in a session developed by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Guy Carpenter. 

I wanted to use to the talk to present to "good and bad" about using historical data in catastrophe modelling to set rates and also the upsides and downsides of using climate model data: it certainly not a panacea but potentially there is use given that historical data only grows slowly. 

 

I don't think there's a right answer here but the talk was there to get to the key points I think are worth talking about.

This short talk was part of a market briefing event where I've talked about why using historical data to spot trends gives me a few headaches!

Historical Data and Climate Change - IUA Market Briefing, 22nd Jan 2019